In the Philippines, Australia, and the wider Pacific region, US defense strategy is shifting from one of superiority to a “scatter and survive” doctrine.
Served as the cornerstone of American military influence in Asia. During the height of the Vietnam war, the sprawling Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base on the island of Luzon hosted tens of thousands of US personnel, playing a key role in Washington’s Cold War-era military expansion.
The PLA’s People have emerged as a powerful and formidable rival.
The current Pentagon strategy for the region reflects the new reality. Referred to as “agile combat employment”, “expanded maneuver” and perhaps most revealingly, “scatter and survive”, the goal is to distribute US forces across a large geographic area to absorb a potential first strike.
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The Americans are dispersing their military forces across a wide area because large bases are highly susceptible to missile attacks,” said Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at Australia’s Lowy Institute. “The focus on survival is correct because the US is establishing a military presence in Asia with a key objective not to win a war against China, but to come through one unscathed.
The Pentagon itself acknowledges that the PLA is now a formidable opponent. In its most recent report to Congress, it described China’s military as “an increasingly capable instrument of national power” that is well-trained in combined operations and equipped with advanced command and control, intelligence, surveillance, and area denial capabilities.
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What is most striking, however, is the scale of China’s naval expansion. The People’s Liberation Army Navy can now deploy more than 370 multi-mission ships and submarines, outnumbering the United States Navy. While Washington heavily relies on allied resources to balance the equation, experts have warned that without significant upgrades to its anti-ship and surface-to-air missile capabilities, the U.S. Navy risks a defeat on a scale not seen since World War II.
“The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) growing capabilities and strategic ideas are solidifying China’s ability to engage in and triumph over conflicts with a ‘strong adversary’,” the Pentagon report observed, using the abbreviated form of China’s official name. The report noted China’s capability to counter outside intervention in regional conflicts – a subtle reference to US involvement in a potential conflict involving Taiwan – and to exert its influence far beyond its territorial limits.
The proposed attack was predicted to be narrowly repelled by the US and its allies, at the cost of hundreds of aircraft, warships, amphibious landing craft, and the lives of soldiers.
More recent simulations have pictured a more dismal scenario for the US military, showing that the PLA’s increasing capabilities could overpower American forces at the beginning of a conflict, while highlighting that the US could regain the initiative by utilizing technologies such as drones and unmanned arms, and employing its “expanded maneuver” tactics.
In the US, the strategy aims to deploy military strength capable of deterring the use of force,” said Michael Allen, a professor of political science at Boise State University in the US. “Its objective is to reassure its allies and partners, and establish strong partnerships that will discourage Chinese expansion into the region.
The United States has reinstated the “island chain” strategy, a tactic originally employed during the Korean war. This approach entails deploying military assets along three north-south island chains in the Pacific Ocean. The first chain spans from Japan south through Taiwan to the Philippines. The second chain extends from the island of Iwo Jima through Guam and Palau to New Guinea. The third chain runs from the Aleutian Islands in the northwest to Hawaii, Oceania, and New Zealand.
Australia plays a pivotal role in this strategy, serving as a anchor point at the southern end of these island chains. Efforts are also underway to establish additional bases west of Darwin, extending as far as the Cocos Islands and the US-UK military facility on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
At the centre of Washington’s strategy is the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which seeks to enhance US military infrastructure west of the international date line with a budget of approximately $9.9 billion for 2025. This encompassed a comprehensive effort to construct an integrated missile defence system for Guam, a pivotal location for US operations in the Pacific.
Across the region, the United States is significantly investing in the construction and upgrading of facilities, providing financial backing for the expansion of port facilities in Subic Bay and the modernization of Basa Air Base and other locations under its Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement with Manila.
Further east, the US Air Force is rehabilitating historic North Field on Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands – the site of the atomic bomb missions of World War II – and expanding the island’s international airport to facilitate mid-air refuelling for tankers. On Guam, already home to the massive Andersen Air Force Base, engineers are restoring the WWII-era Northwest Field and building a new base to house 5,000 Marines being moved from Okinawa.
Comparable upgrades are underway in Australia. Tindal Air Base is being expanded to host B-52 bombers, and a base in Darwin – already hosting a task force of US Marines – is being prepared to accommodate larger US aircraft.
This development occurs as the US Marine Corps undergoes a reorganization to develop into a more mobile, force that specializes in island-hopping operations, outfitted with land-based missile systems capable of targeting enemy vessels and aircraft.
The US Air Force intends to expand a runway on Yap, in the Federated States of Micronesia, and enhance airfields in Palau and on Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands.
Despite such efforts, the Lowy Institute’s Roggeveen has warned that the US strategy remains limited by tight budgets, staffing shortages, and an overextended defense-industrial sector.
He noted that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing an unprecedented modernization since World War II, and in response, the Americans have made virtually no changes to their military posture.
It’s been a long time since American military strength in Asia has undergone a significant expansion. Currently, it’s primarily a matter of rearranging the pieces on the board.
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This article was first published on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), a prominent global news source specializing in reporting on China and the Asia-Pacific region.
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